Well, the Super Bowl is complete and the New York Football Giants have the right to call themselves World Champions after beating the Patriots 21-17. On to other things. The Combines will happen later this month and mock drafts will spring up like mushrooms in a cow field after a summer rain. Well, not one to resist the temptation, here is my first mock on this blog for the 2012 NFL season.
1. Colts - QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
It's an obvious pick, and for obvious reasons. I think this team has set the stage for Peyton Manning to be either traded or cut outright. He won't see a dime of that $28 million he's due in March. Even if they get him to renegotiate that ludicrous deal, they'll stick with the idea of taking Andrew Luck. Life after Peyton is going to happen, perhaps sooner than later.
2. Rams - OT Matt Kalil, USC
The Rams don't have a dire need at left tackle, but the fact is that Roger Saffold can be inconsistent and would probably be best either on the right side, where Jason Smith has been a major disappointment, or at his collegiate position of guard. Either way, Matt Kalil is being regarded by many as the best offensive tackle prospect in half a decade. Keeping Sam Bradford upright needs to be the concern in St. Louis. Kalil is a tremendous pass blocker.
3. Vikings - CB Morris Claiborne, LSU
It will probably be a tough thing for the Vikings to pass on receiver Justin Blackmon, but corners like Claiborne don't come along too often, and the Vikings know they can still get a solid big possession receiver later in the draft. Claiborne gives them a solid cover corner, something they lack, as well as someone who can fill in for Percy Harvin as a punt returner. In all likelihood the Vikings won't even make this pick, as a couple of teams will be calling them about wanting to move up to take Robert Griffin III, ahead of the Cleveland Browns. If they decide to stay, Claiborne is the better value pick above Justin Blackmon.
4. Browns - QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor
I am not convinced that Colt McCoy is the root of all evil in Cleveland. However, few can doubt that Griffin is the much better athlete and has a ton more upside than McCoy. The Browns certainly have numerous other needs, but after seeing what an athletic quarterback who can run and throw did for the Carolina Panthers, the Browns would foolish to pass on the chance of mimicking that success. In the NFL it is all about the talent you have behind center. The Browns need to upgrade there to take the next step and contend in the AFC North.
5. Buccaneers - RB Trent Richardson, Alabama
Many consider Richardson the best running back prospect to come out of college since Adrian Peterson. Despite having LeGarrette Blount on the roster, Richardson would give the Buccaneers an awesome duo in their backfield and take a bunch of pressure off Josh Freeman. I don't know that Richardson will attain the success that Peterson has in the NFL, but he certainly has the tools to be an impact player immediately for this struggling franchise.
6. Redskins - WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
Make no mistake, I don't expect the Redskins to be selecting here. I suspect that they will make their overtures to either St. Louis or Minnesota to try and move up to get RG3. If they somehow fail or get outbid, they will likely look to move down and get value for picking another QB later, likely Ryan Tannehill. However, if they decide to stay put, Justin Blackmon would make really good sense here. The Redskins need a quarterback to be sure, but they could also use a clear cut stud receiver, and quite frankly Jabar Gaffney, Santana Moss and Donte Stallworth all come up short in that area. I have no doubt that the Redskins will be players in free agency and the draft for a quarterback, but getting that signal caller a big time receiver will make their job that much easier.
7. Jaguars - DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina
Jacksonville moved up in the draft last season to get what they hoped would be their franchise signal caller in Blaine Gabbert. Some are already saying it was a mistake, and that he doesn't possess the fearlessness necessary to become that type of player. I say give the kid a chance. The Jags could opt to do that by taking an offensive tackle here. However, the Jaguars also need to be better at pressuring the opposing quarterback, having netted only 31 sacks for the 2011 season. Coples is a big defensive end who is drawing comparisons to former Tarheel Julius Peppers due to the size and speed combination possessed by both (aside from the obvious collegiate connection). Coples isn't quite that good, but he'd give the Jaguars a genuine force off the edge, as well as a solid run stopper there too.
8. Dolphins - OT Riley Reiff, Iowa
It's unusual for a team to select what would obviously be a right tackle for them this high in the draft. However, few who watched a Dolphins game could argue that an upgrade is needed at that spot. Reiff would instantly give the team a strong run blocker at that spot, and certainly has the talent to be an effective pass blocker there as well. I suspect the Dolphins will also be courting some teams at the top of the draft to see what it will take to move up and get RG3, but I don't see them being serious players in those sweepstakes. A move down is possible to add picks and get better value. However, should they keep this selection Reiff would be the best choice for them.
9. Panthers - DT Michael Brockers, LSU
The Panthers took two defensive tackles last year, but neither gave them the kind of play on the inside of their defensive line they were looking for. Brockers can be a penetrating player with excellent quickness off the snap and the strength to push the pocket if needed. He may need some development due to his relative youth, but his upside is better than any other at the position in this draft. Devon Still could be an option, but I see him as a one year wonder who underachieved prior to this past season. Players like that typically revert back to their underachieving nature in the NFL. The Panthers, in my opinion, should avoid him.
10. Buffalo - LB/DE Courtney Upshaw, Alabama
The Bills are quite happy with the play of Chris Hairston, and as such they will likely allow Demetrius Bell to leave in free agency and give Hairston the starting job at left tackle. The Bills can then turn their attention to another area of need, and that's along the defensive line. Rumor is that the Bills will go to a 43 defensive scheme, but will still use elements of the 34 on occasion. Courtney Upshaw would be ideal in that respect, since he has shown the talent to get after the quarterback as a down lineman, as well as having the athletic skills necessary to play outside in the 34 look.
11. Chiefs - OT Jonathan Martin, Stanford
The Chiefs can take their pick of either of Stanford's outstanding former offensive linemen. However, Martin would allow them to move Brandon Albert inside and give them a formidable left side of the offensive line. Martin needs to bulk up some, but as a pass blocker he is much better as a blind side protector than Albert ever was. The fact that the Chiefs jumped on the chance to sign Jared Gaither when he was released should be a strong indication that they want a change at the left tackle spot.
12. Seahawks - DE Melvin Ingram, South Carolina
The Seahawks could consider David DeCastro here, but the truth is they have much more critical needs on defense. The Seahawks pass rush is pretty anemic, due to the fact that Pete Carroll has been determined to build his defensive line using big, run stuffing DEs rather than pass rushers. Adding Ingram will give the team the chance to start generating more pressure on the quarterback and start taking advantage of mistakes made by the opposing offense. Stopping the run is fine, but stopping the pass is how teams win games. Another possible team to try and move up for RG3, but a trade down is more likely to get Ryan Tannehill at a more valuable spot.
13. Cardinals - OT Mike Adams, Ohio State
I'm sure there are going to be folks looking at this pick and saying 'No way'. Don't be so sure. While Adams wasn't as consistent as you'd like to see players be during the Senior Bowl practices, he was excellent during the game in stopping some of the nations best collegiate defensive ends. He has excellent feet, long arms and good balance. His technique could use some refinement, to be sure. But he's a huge improvement over anybody the Cardinals have on their roster today. Unless the Cards think David DeCastro can play left tackle (they don't) Adams would be the most obvious pick for them.
14. Cowboys - CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama
The Cowboys could use David DeCastro on their offensive line, to be sure. But their secondary is among the worst in the NFL, and adding Kirkpatrick would be a tremendous boon for them. If not for his arrest for marijuana possession, Kirkpatrick would have been taken in the top ten. Some feel he is a better coverage corner than Claiborne, particularly in press coverage. Jerry Jones likes to get players from the southern colleges on his roster, so this would make sense in that regard as well.
15. Eagles - LB Luke Kuechly, Boston College
Andy Reid likes to use his first and second round picks on lineman more than anything else, so DeCastro is definitely in play here for them. However, Kuechly would give the team the leader they need at the Mike spot of their defense. Kuechly won't wow you with his athletic talent, but he takes a blue collar approach to the game and has excellent instincts. The Eagles desperately need to improve their linebacking corps, and Kuechly would be the first step towards doing that.
16. Jets - OG David DeCastro, Stanford
Wayne Hunter was a complete failure at the right tackle spot, and I would imagine the Jets can see DeCastro stepping into that role and being an improvement. Even if he has trouble there, they could kick him back inside and move Matt Slauson or Brandon Moore out there. Vlad Ducasse has not developed as they'd hoped, and he seems to be a career backup. DeCastro is the best value on the board at this spot, and should be the pick here.
17. Bengals(from Raiders) - DT Devon Still, Penn State
While some think Still is a top ten talent, I have trouble believing that one good season after being underwhelming the rest of his collegiate career is cause for that type of proclaim. There is no denying Still has the talent, but his motivation has to still be a question. His backing out of the Senior Bowl is a concern as well, even with his claim of an injured toe. However, Cincinnati can use another defensive tackle with the ability to push the pocket, and Still certainly fits that description.
18. Chargers - LB Nick Reed, USC
The Chargers will have to make a really serious decision here. Do they take an obviously talented pass rusher in Reed, or do they shore up their offensive line and go with former Wisconsin Badger pivot man Peter Konz? In the end, Reed is actually the better value player, even though the offensive center position has been getting some love in the first round of recent drafts. Reed has the ability to rush the passer, and the athleticism to drop into coverage, and would allow the team to hopefully move past the Larry English fiasco.
19. Bears - WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame
Jay Cutler needs more weapons to throw to if the Bears are going to get back into the thick of things in the NFC North. There are some off-field concerns surrounding Floyd, to be sure. But his ability on the field is unquestionable, and that's what the Bears need to be concerned with. Many feel Michael Floyd is worthy of a top fifteen grade, so getting him here is a boon for this team.
20. Titans - DE Whitney Mercilus, Illinois
The Titans were the worst team in the NFL when it came to accounting for sacks from their defensive ends. This team is desperately in need of a force coming off the edge. They have some need to improve the interior of their offensive line, so Peter Konz is an option here as well. But Mercilus is an excellent edge rusher and would give this team what they are lacking.
21. Bengals - CB Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama
Cincinnati would be smart to move Nate Clements to their free safety spot and plug in a new starter at corner opposite Leon Hall. Jenkins could be the best pure cover corner in this draft, particularly as a press corner. Landing him this late is a great value, particularly if the Bengals can rest assured his off-field issues are now behind him.
22. Browns(from Falcons) - SS Mark Barron, Alabama
With their new signal caller taken earlier in this round, the Browns can use this pick to shore up their leaky defense. Mark Barron is a solid run tackling safety who can play inside the box, but is also good as a coverage safety when called upon. His presence gives the team a big hitter with awareness and a definitive leader in the secondary.
23. Lions - OC Peter Konz, Wisconsin
Reports are that the Lions will be in the market for free agent tackle Jared Gaither, and plan on making a strong push to sign him. Even if they should not land him, they can still get Jeff Backus back for a relatively inexpensive price. However, the weakest part of their offensive line happens to be in the middle. Stephen Peterman is wildly inconsistent and Dominic Raiola is not the mauler the Lions need at center. With Raiola entering a contract year and Peterman underachieving, the Lions can take Konz to replace Peterman in 2012, then slide over in 2013 to man the center spot.
24. Steelers - OT Cordy Glenn, Georgia
The situation for the Steelers on their offensive line is desperate, and they can use upgrades just about anywhere. Cordy Glenn showed at the Senior Bowl that he's a better guard prospect than a tackle prospect, but wouldn't be completely out of place at either tackle spot if they put him there. The Steelers need to upgrade in front of Ben Roethlisberger and Reshard Mendenhall if they want to push further into the playoffs in 2012.
25. Broncos - DT Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State
Denver might look at Alshon Jeffry here, but in all honesty they need to upgrade their defense first. A cornerback that can take some burden off Champ Bailey would be nice, but none of value exist here. So getting more pressure is the next best thing, and Fletcher Cox is a great step in that direction. He can disrupt running lanes and collapse the pocket as good as any in this draft class, and just might turn out to be the best defensive tackle selected in the first round of this lottery.
26. Texans - NT Dontari Poe, Memphis
I'm sure the Texans will be torn between selecting Alshon Jeffry here, or getting a crucial piece of their defensive puzzle put into place. I look at it this way, 350 pound players with athleticism like that of Poe come along maybe once every three or four years. How often will you be there to take them when they are available? The Texans ability to stop the run will improve greatly with this pick, and a wideout can always be had later.
27. Patriots(from Saints) - RB Lamar Miller, Miami, FLA
The Patriots desperately need to upgrade their defense, but also need a reliable running game. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is set to become a free agent, and the Patriots aren't known for retaining their backs. Miller has the kind of skills that would allow them to use him either as a runner or receiver out of the backfield and he possesses the second gear Green-Ellis doesn't quite have.
28. Packers - LB Andre Branch, Clemson
I'm sure there is some question as to whether Branch is deserving of a first round grade, let alone whether he will be able to make the switch to outside linebacker in the Packer 34 defense. Branch is more than athletic enough to make the switch, but it will depend on his ability to pick up the nuances of the position in the film room. I suspect Branch can be the player the Packers are looking for to play opposite Clay Matthews, and give them two legitimate outside pass rushers.
29. Ravens - LB Vontaze Burfict, Arizona State
Just about everyone has Burfict mocked to the Ravens in this round, and for good reason. Burfict is a tremendous talent and is worthy of a top twenty grade. However, he needs to control himself in the NFL given the crackdown on the "rough" play. Ray Lewis can take Burfict under his wing and teach him to play with passion, but under control as well.
30. 49ers - WR Alshon Jeffry, South Carolina
Alex Smith had his best season by far for the 49ers, but could have done better with some better receiver play. Michael Crabtree is not the go to guy the niners need on the outside, and Vernon Davis isn't a deep, outside threat. Jeffry had a down year in 2011, so his stock dropped. However, the talent is undeniably there and if he puts it all together San Francisco will be that much more dangerous in 2012.
31. Patriots - DT Brandon Thompson, Clemson
The Patriots defense is making a transformation from a 34 defense to a hybrid defense which runs a different scheme just about every down. What the Pats would like to add is another defensive lineman that they can use either inside in a 43 set, or outside in a 34 set. Thompson has the athletic skill to be that kind of guy, and may even see some time lining up at end in the Pats four man defensive front.
32. Giants - LB Zach Brown, North Carolina
Quite possibly the fastest, most athletic linebacker in this draft, Brown is also the most enigmatic. His skills need to be brought under control for him to be a success in the NFL. He showed a tendency to over-run plays and hesitate in his decision making at the Senior Bowl. The Giants might have to wait some time before Brown is ready to start, but with proper coaching and patience he could become something special for them.
